I'd be willing to bet a considerable amount of money that you're wrong on both counts.
If I didn't realize that the American voter is a stupid, easily swayed creature, I would agree with you. I just can't help but remember "read my lips, no new taxes!!" Bush got the crap beat out of him with that stick, but no one remembered that the Dems (who had control of congress) would not pass a budget with out new taxes.. the Government even shut down for a few weeks... so can Obama win based on, hey I got Bin Laden, sure he can... he'll just point out that everything that is wrong is not his fault, he inherited it... he just needs another term to prove it.. after all he got the troops out of Afghanistan and the civil unrest that occured after that was not his fault either, in fact he kept us out of another countries civil war... yeah he's the greatest!!